NFL Playoffs 2006: Divisional round

Ok I had a bad week last week as all four of my picks lost against the point spread. I did pick three of the four winners, though - as only Kansas City lost. Did they even show up to play last week?

Anyway, on to this week's picks:

SATURDAY, January 13:

Indianapolis Colts (13-4) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3): Baltimore is favored by 4 with an o/u of 42. Indianapolis leads all-time head to head series, 4-2-0. This is their first playoff matchup. How cool is it that the Colts get to play in Baltimore, in a playoff game, as the road team? Indy's Offense is great but their defense is suspect. Baltimore's defense is great but their offense is suspect. Peyton Manning to Harrison and Wayne is just too good to be kept off of the scoreboard, but they will be held in check by the Ravens' defense. On the other hand, Indy's defense doesn't scare anyone - and even a suspect offense can score on it. I predict a relatively low scoring affair. Take Baltimore to cover and take the under. Prediction: Baltimore 20, Indianapolis 14. Actual Score: Indianapolis 15, @ Baltimore 6. Vinateri proved again how automatic he is in the playoffs. You could read Tony Dungy's lips when he said "Money," as #4 lined up for his 5th FG of the game. Wish he was still on my team...

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at New Orleans Saints (10-6): New Orleans is favored by 5 with an o/u of 48 1/2. Philadelphia leads the all time head to head series 15-9-0 including a Week 6 loss (@ NO 27, Phi 24 (by a last second 60 yard field goal)) This is their 2nd playoff matchup (1982- Phi 36, @ NO 20). After Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the Saints last year, they certainly are the feel-good story of this year's playoffs, and rightfully so. They have an excellent QB in Drew Brees, the NFL Coach of the Year in Sean Payton and an excellent defense. The Eagles are the hottest team coming into the playoffs, winning their last six games, including last week 23-20 vs. the NY Giants. Can QB Jeff Garcia pull off another win here? Logic says he can but my guess is he won't. The Eagles simply have too many injuries on defense to win this game. I expect them to keep it close for the first half but the Saints will pull away in the third quarter. Take New Orleans to cover and take the over. Prediction: New Orleans 35, Philadelphia 17. Actual score: @ New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24. The game was much closer than I thought it would be. I'm 0-6 picking against the point spread so far this post season....

SUNDAY, January 14:

Seattle Seahawks (10-7) at Chicago Bears (13-3): Chicago is favored by 8 1/2 with an o/u of 36 1/2. Seattle leads the all time head to head series 6-3-0, including a 37-6 drubbing at Chicago in Week 4. Thus is their first playoff matchup. Seattle got lucky to win last week's game on a tremendous flub by Dallas QB Tony Romo that would have won the game for the Cowboys. In the Week 4 game, Seattle was without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander and got the stuffing beat out of them. That was before the Rex Grossman implosion of the second half of the season for Chicago. Which Bears QB shows up? My guess is the latter. Seattle's defense, while banged up is good enough to force Grossman into mistakes. which Seattle must convert into touchdowns, not field goals. The Bears excellent defense will keep them in the game because the Seahawks offense is due for a breakout game. However, that breakout game will not come here. The Seahawks playoff experience will be the difference and WR Deion Branch will have a great game. Take the Seahawks to win outright but take the under in a ridiculously close game. Prediction: Seahawks 14, Bears 13. Actual score: @ Chicago 27, Seattle 24 (OT). Rediculously close as I thought. A much higher scoring game than I thought. Most importantly, I'm off the schneid against the point spread!!!!

New England Patriots (13-4) at San Diego Chargers (14-2): San Diego is favored by 4 1/2 with an o/u of 46 1/2. New England leads the all time head to head series 17-14-2. This is their 2nd playoff matchup (1963 AFL Championship - @ SD 51, NE 10). Something's gotta give here- the Chargers are 8-0 at home this year and the Patriots are 7-1 on the road. We all know about the vaunted San Diego defense but the Patriots defense is no slouch either, allowing the second fewest PPG (after Baltimore) in the NFL. The Chargers QB is making his first playoff start and Bill Belichick loves to scheme his defenses for rookie QB's. Belichick also loves to take away what the opposing offense does best, in this case run. RB LaDanian Tomlinson is the NFL MVP this year, and rightfully so. So goes Tomlinson, so go the Chargers.
Here's the game plan for the Patriots as I see it: Use the same plan you did when pummeling the Vikings and Jaguars in the regular season. These teams had excellent defenses as well. What did the Patriots do? Throw over the defense with little 7 and 8 yard patterns and let the WR's and TE's run after the catch. Screen passes work well too. A quick release by QB Tom Brady neutralizes the Chargers best pass rushers and forces them to loosen up on the DL. This will open holes for Patriots RB's Dillon and Maroney and allow Brady to use his excellent play action fakes and take some shots down the field. More importantly, the Patriots need to get an early lead in this game and keep the pressure on the Chargers QB to beat them. San Diego didn't have to play catch up too often this season, which was a large part of their success and allowed Tomlinson to run wild. If the Chargers get behind early, it will force the Chargers to throw the ball and will lead to mistakes. Tomlinson is too good not to get his 100 yards. Just make him get it in 30 carries, not 10-15. Another thing working in the Patriots favor, I think, is the supreme overconfidence/cockiness of the Chargers players. Oh, and did I mention that Belichick and Brady are 11-1 in the playoffs (with an offense that is humming right now) and Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer is 5-12 lifetime in the playoffs? Take the Patriots to win outright and definitely take the over. Prediction: Patriots 38, Chargers 24. Actual score: Patriots 24, @ San Diego 21. WOW!!! With a game like that, how can you NOT love football? Pulse pounding to the end. I actually thought it would be a tight game score-wise, no matter who won. It's my home team biased favoritism that was the cause of the lopsided score prediction in the Patriots favor. Don't even say it was a lucky win. The Patriots truly earned this one, from start to finish. They were outplayed for most of the game, yet found a way to stay close and pull it out in the end, as they so often have done in the last five years. I'm already looking forward to next Sunday.

Of course, with any football game, turnovers are a killer and can radically change the outcome of any game. So the teams that take care of the ball better will, in most cases, win.