2008 NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

{You didn't really think I would leave you pick-less for this weeks games, now did you? Of course not...}

It was the best of times and it was the worst of times. I do believe it's true.

Last week I went 3-1-0 SU but only 1-3-0 ATS. With three meaningful football games to go in these playoffs, I'm 6-2-0 SU and a blah 3-5 ATS. I need wins across the board this week, especially picking games against the spread. Good thing for me that I don't actually wager any money on these football picks of mine.

This week we have a pair of Week Two rematches for our Conference Championship games. Waaaay back in September, the Patriots kicked the Chargers butts at Gillette Stadium, 38-14 and the Packers came in to New York and stomped on the Giants, 35-13. How will the games play out this weekend, with reservations to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII on the line?

Let's take a look at the match-up in the AFC:



Sunday, January 20^th @ 15:00 CBS - San Diego Chargers (13-5) @ New England Patriots (17-0) (-14, 46 o/u): The main story for San Diego is injuries. Both QB Philip Rivers and RB LaDanian Tomlinson sustained knee injuries last week at Indy. Tomlinson has practiced this week while Rivers has not; this leads to speculation that Rivers' knee is more seriously hurt than the Chargers are letting on. If Rivers can't go, backup QB Billy Volek will be pressed into duty. He did an admirable job leading the Chargers to (and scoring) the game winning touchdown. Because Tomlinson has been able to practice, he likely will play but the Chargers don't lose much when RB Michael Turner fills-in. Super TE Antonio Gates had two catches for 28 yards and was basically a non-factor. He's clearly still hampered by the toe injury from the Titans game two weeks ago. How effective these players are will largely determine how long San Diego stays competitive in this game.
On the Patriots side, players and coaches have stated unanimously that WR Randy Moss' legal issue will not be a factor for the team. You'd be hard pressed to find a more focused team than the Patriots under Bill Belichick. That's why they are only focusing on the Chargers and not this 17-0 business. Many of the veterans on this team have won Super Bowls and all but a few players participated in last year's AFC title game stunning loss to the Colts. The weather will be clear and cold with some wind. It remains to be seen how this will affect the game, especially the Chargers (game time temperature 23 deg. F, 11 deg. F windchill factor). Brady and Belichick are 7-0 in home playoff games. Make that 8-0 after this game. The Patriots will get out to an early lead making Tomlinson/ Turner useless and forcing Rivers/Volek to beat them throwing. The Chargers aren't designed to win shootouts and they won't be able to keep up with all of the Patriots offensive weapons. Sorry, Norv. My Prediction: @ New England 41, San Diego 17. Actual Result: @ New England 21, San Diego 12. This was a much lower scoring game than I thought on the Patriots side. The keys to the game were Patriots QB Tom Brady's three interceptions (one in the end zone) to San Diego QB Philip Rivers two interceptions and holding the powerful San Diego offense to four field goals. Rivers played on bad knees but RB Tomlinson only was able to contribute on three plays early in the first quarter. On to Glendale, Arizona two weeks from tonight.

Now let's look at the match-up in the NFC:



Sunday, January 20^th @ 18:30 FOX - New York Giants (12-6) @ Green Bay Packers (14-3) (-7, 40 o/u): For the G-men, this game is going to be all about controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball with RB's Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs and allowing Eli Maning to manage the game, as he has the last three weeks. In the last three games, Manning has completed 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns and only one interception. The Giants defense compiled the most sacks in the regular season and will be key if they can pressure Green Bay QB Brett Favre into mistakes. For the Packers, they will compliment Favre's excellent passing and WR's Driver, Jennings, Robinson and Jones with former Giants practice squad player Ryan Grant, who ran for 201 yards in last weekend's win over Seattle. Likewise, the Packers excellent defense will need to pressure Eli Manning into rushed throws and INT's. This game will also feature very cold temperatures (game time temp 3-4 deg. F with -9 deg. windchill factor). I think this will be a real close game (within 7 points) most of the way. Both teams will play well but Packers K Mason Crosby puts the game out of reach with a late FG. My Prediction: @ Green Bay 30, New York 21. Actual Result: New York Giants 23, @ Green Bay 20 OT. Well, this game was as close as I thought it would be, just that the wrong team won. The story of the game is K Lawrence Tynes missing 43 and 36 yard field goals in the 4^th quarter of a tie game, then winning it with 2:35 gone in overtime with a 47 yard FG. The Giants owned a massive edge in time of possession and total yardage. QB Eli Manning once again played turnover-free football. Giants become 3^rd Wild Card team to win three road games to advance to the Super Bowl (1985 Patriots, 2005 Steelers). On to Arizona in two weeks.